forex

Subax Wanaagsan: Gold hoos, DXY kor, heshiiska Chi-US, ballanqaadka Trump- Wax walb oo u baahan tahay si aad maalintada u bilaabato

Hagarlaawe HMM

12 May 2025 at 6:55 AM — 3 min read

Saamiyada Aasiya ayaa kor u kacay iyadoo sidoo kale la arkay koror ku yimid tusmada saamiyada Mareykanka, kaddib markii Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka ay sheegeen in ay “horumar weyn” ka sameeyeen wadahadalladooda ganacsi, taasoo suuqyada gelisay jawi lagu samayn karo maalgashi. Dahabka ayaa hoos u dhacay ilaa 2% sababo la xiriira hoos u dhac ku yimid baahida maalgashiga hantida badbaadada ah.

Saamiyada S&P 500 ayaa kordhay 1.4%, halka Nasdaq 100 uu sare u kacay 1.9%. Sidoo kale Doollarka ka xoog batay lacagaha badbaadada loo adeegsado sida Swiss franc iyo yen-ka, wuxuuna ka sarre maray inta badan lacagaha Yurub. Doollarku wuxuu ka xoo badan waayay lacagaha si dhow ula xiriira dhaqaalaha Shiinaha sida Aussie (doollarka Australia) iyo kiwi (doollarka New Zealand), sababta oo ah dhaqaalahooda ayaa ku xidhan Shiinaha.

Inkasta oo saamiyadu ay dhawaan sare u kaceen — tusmada S&P 500 ayaa u dhowaatay heerkii ay taagnayd ka hor intii uusan Madaxweynaha Mareykanka Donald Trump ku dhawaaqin canshuuraha caalamka ee bishii Abriil bilowgeedii — hadda kadib kor u kaca tusmooyinka Maraykanku wuxuu ku xirnaan doonaa in si dhab ah loo dhimo dagaalka ganacsi ee u dhexeeya Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha.

Waxaa jirta cabsi ah in haddii aan laga noqon, canshuuraha aadka u badan ay sababi karaan in dhaqaalaha adduunka uu galo jahwareer stagflation ah, iyadoo uu hoos u dhac dhaqaale jiro isla markaana sicir barar sare uu dhaco.

“Rabitaanka maalgashiga ayaa kusoo laabanaya suuqyada,” ayuu yiri Raj Singh, oo ah maareeye kayd-wadaag ah oo ka tirsan Principal Asset Management, isagoo la hadlayay Bloomberg Television. Singh wuxuu filayaa in jawigan maalgashigu u socon doono muddo, laakiin wuxuu intaa ku daray: “Xaaladda ganacsi aad ayay u nugushahay, hubanti la’aantuna aad ayay u sareysaa.”

Ka dib laba maalmood oo wadahadallo ah oo ka dhacayeen Geneva, Xoghayaha Maaliyadda Mareykanka Scott Bessent iyo Wakiilka Ganacsiga Jamieson Greer waxay sheegeen inay isniinta shaacin doonaan warbixin dheeri ah. Greer wuxuu wariyeyaasha u sheegay in “khilaafka iyo kala aragti duwasntu aanay sidaas u weynayn sidii la moodayay.” Mas’uuliyiinta Shiinaha ayaa sidoo kale hadalkaas taageeray intii lagu guda jiray warbixin gaar ah oo ay axaddii bixiyeen, iyagoo sheegay in wadahadallada labada dhinac ay ka gaareen “horumar waara oo wanaagsan” oo ku saabsan xiriirka Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka.

Cashuuro badan uu Trump soo rogay, iyo Shiinaha oo ka jawaabau ayaa sare u qaaday canshuuraha Mareykanka ee badeecadaha Shiinaha laga keeno ilaa 145%, halka Shiinuhuna uu 125% canshuur ah dul dhigay alaabada Mareykanka.

Trump wuxuu hakiyay canshuurihii ugu cuslaa ee uu saaray dalalka kale marka laga reebo Shiinaha, taasoo keentay kor u kac ku yimid tusmada S&P 500. Heshiis ganacsi oo uu toddobaadkii hore la saxiixday UK ayaa sidoo kale dhiirrigeliyay kalsoonida, inkastoo faahfaahinta heshiiska aysan dad badan ku qancin. Hindiya iyo Jabaan ayaa iyaguna wadahadallo la leh Mareykanka si loo yareeyo canshuuraha.

“Dhab ahaantii, waxaan filayaa in heshiisyadan ganacsi ay qaadan doonaan waqti dheer si si buuxda loogu dhammaystiro,” ayuu yiri Sean Darby, Agaasimaha Guud ee Mizuho Securities Asia, isagoo la hadlayay Bloomberg Television. “Heshiisyadaani waxay leeyihiin faahfaahin badan oo u baahan in la xalliyo.”

Dhinaca Mareykanka wuxuu dejiyay bartilmaameed ah in canshuuraha la dhimo oo ay hoos uga dhacaan 60%, taasoo ay u arkaan in Shiinuhu laga yaabo inuu diyaar u yahay inuu la jaanqaado, sida ay sheegeen dad xog ogaal ah. Trump wuxuu bartiisa bulshada ku qoray Jimcihii in 80% canshuur ah “ay u muuqato mid sax ah!” Dhinaca kale, Trump wuxuu sheegay inuu qorsheynayo inuu amar ku bixiyo hoos u dhigidda qiimaha daawooyinka ee Mareykanka, isagoo amraya in Mareykanku uusan ka bixin karin wax ka badan dalalka ugu qiimaha jaban. Trump wuxuu bartiisa bulshada ku sheegay inuu saxiixi doono amarka fulinta 9 subaxnimo Isniinta waqtiga Washington oo innaga inoo ku beegan 4-ta galabnimo xilliga Soomaaliya.

Saamiyada shirkadaha dawooyinka Aasiya ayaa hoos u dhacay warkan dartiis.

Hantida halista leh (Crypto, stocks iwm) sidoo kale waxay ka faa’iidi karaan xabad joojinta u dhexeysa Hindiya iyo Pakistan, iyo sidoo kale calaamadaha muujinaya in hoggaamiyeyaasha Ruushka iyo Ukraine ay kulan yeelan karaan toddobaadkan waxay qaboojinaysaa suuqyada, khatartuna meesha way ka baxaysaa ama yaraanaysaa.

“Yaraynta xiisadaha ganacsi, dhaqaale iyo kuwo juquraafiyeed waxay suuqyada siin karaan dhiirrigelin maalgashi badan ah,” ayuu yiri Valentin Marinov, madaxa cilmi-baarista lacagaha G-10 ee Credit Agricole.

“Horumaradan ugu dambeeyay waxay faa’iido u noqon karaan hantida iyo lacagaha la xiriira halis qaadashada, waxayna dhaawici karaan lacagaha badbaadada ah sida yen-ka, Swiss franc iyo xitaa euro-ga.”

Watchlist-gayga waxaa ku jira intan oo Pair, dhammaan dhaqaqoodu waa kuwan, inkastoo ay GAP wayn ku furmeen, haddana badanka GAP ka ay soo dabooleen. [% = waa inta ay kor u kaceen, ama hoos u dhaceen lacagaha kala duwan tan iyo bilowda shummaca Isniinta 01:00 AM]

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