Khudbaddii guddoomiyaha Bangiga Jabaan ee Ueda; muxuu sheegay, sidee ayayse JPY u saamayn kartaa?
Guddoomiyaha Bangiga Dhexe ee Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, ayaa khudbaddiisa furitaanka Shirweynaha BOJ-IMES ee 2025 kaga hadlay mowduuca ah "Caqabadaha Cusub ee Siyaasadda Lacageed." Wuxuu carabka ku adkeeyay in Japan ay weli la tacaalayso sidii loo gaari lahaa bartilmaameedkeeda ah sicir-barar joogto ah oo gaaraya 2%, iyadoo caqabadaha ugu waaweyn ay yihiin heerka dulsaarka oo aad u hooseeya, marka la barbardhigo Maraykanka iyo Midowga Yurub (EA), halkaasoo sicir-bararku kor u kacay kadibna hoos u dhacay sababo la xiriira qalalaasaha sahayda iyo adkeynta siyaasadda lacageed, maadaama filashooyinka sicir-bararka ay ahaayeen kuwo aad u hooseeya.
Dhowaan sicir-bararka Japan mar kale ayuu sare u kacay, iyadoo sababta ugu weyn ay tahay kororka qiimaha cuntada, gaar ahaan bariiska oo qiimihiisu kordhay 98% sanadkii la soo dhaafay. Tani waxay keentay in sicir-bararka guud ee Japan uu ka bato kii Maraykanka iyo Midowga Yurub.
Dulsaarka siyaasadeed ee Japan wuxuu weli ku jiraa heer aad u hooseeya (0.5%), halka heerka dhabta ah ee dulsaarka (real interest rate) uu yahay mid si xun u hooseeya, taasoo muujinaysa in BoJ ay weli hayso siyaasad dabacsan. BoJ waxay sidaas u samaynaysaa maadaama sicir-bararka salka u ah (underlying inflation), oo laga reebay saameynta kumeel-gaarka ah sida kororka qiimaha sahayda, uu weli ka hooseeyo 2%.
Filashooyinka sicir-bararka waxay kor u kaceen ilaa 1.5–2.0%, taasoo ah heerkii ugu sarreeyay muddo 30 sano ah, balse wali ma aysan gaarin xasillooni 2% ah. Ueda wuxuu sheegay in isgaarsiinta siyaasadda lacageed ay adkaatay sababtoo ah farqiga u dhexeeya sicir-bararka guud iyo midka dhabta ah, iyadoo saameynta sahayda (tusaale: qiimaha cuntada) ay sii adkeynayaan saadaasha mustaqbalka.
BoJ waxay filaysaa in sicir-bararka dhabta ah uu si tartiib ah ugu dhowaan doono 2%, balse waxay hoos u dhigtay saadaasha dhaqaalaha iyo sicir-bararka sababo la xiriira hubanti la’aanta siyaasadda ganacsiga. Go’aamada siyaasadeed waxay ku xirnaan doonaan xogta cusub ee soo baxda, iyadoo khatarta ay u badan tahay in dib u dhacdo sanadaha 2025 iyo 2026.
Dabacsanaan mise Ad-adayg (Hawkish vs. Dovish) iyo Sidee u Saameysaa JPY
Jawaab: Waa DOVISH oo hoos u dhigi karta lacagta JPY.
Qodobbada Dovish-ka ah:
BoJ waxay sii wadaysaa siyaasad lacageed oo dabacsan (policy easing) oo ay ku jiraan heerar dulsaareed oo hooseeya iyo dulsaarka dhabta ah oo taban.
Ueda wuxuu adkeeyay in sicir-bararka dhabta ah uu weli ka hooseeyo bartilmaameedka 2%, taasoo sabab u ah sii wadista dabacsanaanta.
Saadaasha dhaqaalaha iyo sicir-bararka ayaa hoos loo dhigay, taasoo tilmaamaysa in aysan jirin qorshe degdeg ah oo lagu adkeynayo siyaasadda lacageed.
BoJ waxay "ka fiirsanaysaa" saameynta kumeel-gaarka ah ee qiimaha cuntada, halkii ay markiiba dulsaarka kor u qaadi lahayd.
Qodobbada Hawkish-ka ah ee Buy Ka Dhigi Kara JPY:
Filashooyinka sicir-bararka waa kor u kacay (1.5–2.0%), taasoo muujin karta suuragalnimada isbedel mustaqbalka.
Ueda wuxuu sheegay in haddii xogta dhaqaale ay xoojiso kalsoonida in 2% la gaari karo, BoJ ay markaas sameyn doonto isbedel siyaasadeed.
BUY iyo SELL kee ku fiican tahay JPY warkan awgii?
Codka guud ee khudbadda waa mid DOVISH ah, maadaama BoJ ay xoogga saarayo ilaalinta dabacsanaanta si loo gaaro bartilmaameedka sicir-bararka ee 2%. Tani waxay ka dhigi kartaa JPY mid daciif ah, maadaama dulsaarka hooseeya uu ka dhigayo lacagta mid aan soo jiidasho lahayn marka la barbar dhigo lacagaha kale ee dulsaarka sare leh.
Warkan intuu socday lacagta JPY illaa 0.70% ayay kor u kacday, oo dhaqaaqu warka wuu ka soo horjeedaa inkastoo ay marin habaabin noqon karto, sidoo kale su'aalo la waydiiyay guddoomiyaha ay isbeddel keeni karaan jawaabahoodu.
