Bayaanka FOMC Meeting maxaa lagu sheegay, sidee ayuuse u saamayn karaa Doollarka?

Si loo qiimeeyo in warbixinta FOMC ee kulankii dhacay 6–7-da May 2025 ay u tahay hawkish (taageeraysa kororka doolarka) ama dovish (taageeraysa hoos u dhaca doolarka) DXY (US Dollar Index), waxaa muhiim ah in la eego aragtida Fed-ka ee ku aaddan:

Dulsaarka (interest rates)

Sicir-bararka (inflation)

Suuqa shaqada

Xasuusnoow:

➡️ Hawkish = Siyaasad adag (koror dulsaarka ah), taasoo xoogeysa doolarka ➡️ Dovish = Siyaasad dabacsan (hoos u dhac dulsaarka ah), taasoo daciifisa doolarka

Qodobbada Ugu Muhiimsan Ee Warbixinta FOMC

1. Aragtida Siyaasadda Lacageed (Monetary Policy)

Fed-ku wuxuu dulsaarka ku hayay halkiisii: 4.25% ilaa 4.5%.

Waxaa la muujiyey isu dheelitirnaan iyo sugitaan (wait-and-see) sababtoo ah xasarado siyaasadeed oo is biirsaday — gaar ahaan canshuuraha cusub ee ganacsiga (tariffs).

Fed-ku wuxuu sheegay in siyaasadda hadda jirta ay tahay siyaasad “xaddidan oo dhexdhexaad ah”, taasoo muujinaysa in aysan degdeg u beddelayn.

2. Sicir-bararka (Inflation)

Sicir-bararka guud ee PCE waa 2.3%, halka midka asaasiga ah (core) uu yahay 2.6%.

Tariffs-ka cusub ayaa la filayaa inay sare u qaadaan sicir-bararka sannadkan, dabadeed uu hoos ugu soo laabto 2% sanadka 2027.

Waxaa jirta cabsi ku aaddan in shirkaduhu ku shuban doonaan qiimaha sareeya ee canshuuraha macaamiisha.

Waxaa la sheegay in filashooyinka muddada-dheer ee sicir-bararka ay weli deggan yihiin, taasoo muhiim u ah xasilloonida doolarka.

Waxaa laga guuray istiraatiijiyaddii hore ee "average inflation targeting" loona guuray "flexible inflation targeting" — taasoo u oggolaanaysa Fed-ka inuu si dhaqso ah u tallaabo haddii sicir-bararku sii jiro.

3. Dhaqaalaha iyo Suuqa Shaqada

GDP-ga rubucii hore si yar ayuu hoos ugu dhacay sababo la xiriira kala wareejin alaabo badan kahor canshuuraha, balse PDFP (qeybta kharashyada gudaha) waxay muujisay koboc adag.

Heerka shaqo la’aanta waa 4.2%, waxaana jira koboc joogto ah oo shaqooyin ah, balse shirkado qaar ayaa joojiyay shaqaaleynta sababo la xiriira hubanti la’aanta.

Fed-ku wuxuu saadaaliyay in shaqo la’aantu kor u kacdo sanadkan, iyadoo ay jiraan khataro hoos u dhaca dhaqaale (recession) oo kordhay.

4. Suuqyada Maaliyadeed iyo Doolarka (DXY)

Doolarka (DXY) wuxuu hoos u dhacay in ka badan 2% intii u dhaxaysay kulamada FOMC.

Dadka maalgashadayaasha ah waxay kor u qaadeen istiraatiijiyadooda FX hedging, taasoo muujinaysa in ay ka baqayaan saameynta canshuuraha Mareykanka ku yeeshay.

Suuqyada futures-ka waxay fileen saddex hoos u dhac oo 25 bps ah ilaa dhammaadka 2025.

Sicir-bararka muddada dheer wuxuu joogaa meel deggan, taasoo muujinaysa in aysan jirin baahi degdeg ah oo koror dulsaareed ah.

Qiimeyn: Hawkish mise Dovish

Calaamado Hawkish ah (Doolarka Kor u Qaadaya):

• Fed-ku wuxuu diiradda saaraya sicir-bararka sareeya iyo khataraha sare u kaca.
• Siyaasadda hadda jirta waa mud xaddidan (restrictive).
• Istaraatiijiyadda cusub ee flexible inflation targeting waxay ka tarjumaysaa diyaar garow lagu xakameynayo sicir-bararka.
• Filashooyinka muddada-dheer ee sicir-bararka oo deggan waxay taageeraan joogtaynta siyaasadda xaddidan.

Calaamado Dovish ah (Doolarka Daciifinaya):

Suuqyadu waxay filayaan hoos u dhac dulsaareed ilaa 3 jeer 2025.

Dhaqaale daciif ah: Fed-ku wuxuu saadaaliyay koboc hooseeya iyo shaqo la’aan korodhay.

Doolarka oo horey hoos ugu dhacay wuxuu muujinayaa kalsooni la’aan suuqa.

Fed-ku wuxuu doortay inuu sugo oo xog dheeraad ah aruuriyo, halkii uu tallaabo ka qaadi lahaa — taasoo muujinaysa dovish short-term stance.

Gunaanad iyo Go’aan

FOMC minutes-ku waxay u janjeeraan hawkish yar oo aan aad Bullish ula jirin:Fed-ku wuxuu diiradda saarayaa sicir-bararka, diyaar u yahay inuu sii adkeeyo siyaasadda haddii loo baahdo, taasoo sare u qaadi karta doolarka (DXY).

Laakiin...

Waxaa jirta cabsi la xiriirta dhaqaalaha, filashooyinka suuqa ee hoos u dhaca dulsaarka, iyo hoos u dhaca doolarka intii u dhaxaysay kulamadii — taasoo hoos u dhigaysa saameynta hawkish-ka.

Go’aanka:

Warbixintu waa hawkish yar oo xaddidan oo u roon doolarka (DXY), balse suuqyadu weli waxay filayaan dabacsanaan sababtoo ah hubanti la’aanta dhaqaalaha.